Category Archives: Market Thoughts

I was building out some internal charts recently and ended up creating a spread between the bull and bear sentiment indices (using the AAIIBULL and AAIIBEAR Index).  Basically it shows investors bullish sentiment in 6 months time (the higher the number … Continue reading →

The markets definitely seem excited about the euro-zone plan to hair-cut Greek debt and lever the EFSF (basically levering debt to solve a debt problem with money you hope to raise from Asian investors who you’re already indebted to…interesting), but … Continue reading →

In early September we posted a handful of charts on how historic the recent market volatility has been and how unhealthy these swings are (especially for investor psychology, see link).  The broad market S&P500 rocketed 4.2% in the last 45 minutes of trading today (that’s … Continue reading →

A prominent sell-side analyst reversed his call for more near term CNY appreciation this morning and has now suggested that China may re-peg around the current level.  Therefore, I thought I would resurrect a chart we’ve spoken about internally before—the CNY vs. … Continue reading →

Several strategists and money managers have commented recently about the historic volatility the markets have experienced over the past 30 days.  Todays intra-day moves encouraged me to take a closer look at the numbers.  Let’s start with todays rollercoaster ride.  Pre-market this … Continue reading →

Below are some thoughts about global imbalances we’ve been talking about internally for a while now that were recently highlighted by one of the independent economists we subscribe to.    The pain (i.e. slowing global growth) will be felt most harshly on the creditor/surplus nations, … Continue reading →

The markets have been on quite a ride the past couple of weeks with the SPX cratering 11% from recent highs and the VIX exploding 87%.  The talking heads are pointing to all sorts of reasons for the sell off, … Continue reading →