Author Archives: Cullen Thompson

Our Framework for Gold

Posted on April 18, 2013 by Cullen Thompson

In evaluating gold, we consider the following: 1. The Fundamental Case – Should we own gold? If so, how should we size it? 2. The Technical Backdrop – How is gold currently trading? Where is the technical resistance and support? … Continue reading →

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“No nation has ever built so much, so fast” – 60 Minutes

Posted on March 5, 2013 by Cullen Thompson

60 Minutes did a great segment the other night on China’s Real Estate Bubble that echoed our  views published last October following our trip to China (see One Giant Epcot Center).  The episode features Gillem Tulloch, founder of Forensic Asia … Continue reading →

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“One Giant Epcot Center”

Posted on October 24, 2012 by Cullen Thompson

“SO BASICALLY CHINA IS ONE GIANT EPCOT CENTER,” were the words uttered by Chris Pavese, himself unsure of whether they formed a question, a tongue-in-cheek comment, or an apt summary of what we had witnessed touring nearly a dozen Chinese … Continue reading →

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U.S. Housing – Bullish on our own backyard…

Posted on June 27, 2012 by Cullen Thompson

We have a confession; we’re bullish!  On U.S. Housing, that is…See our latest thoughts below.

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Alternative Histories

Posted on January 6, 2012 by Cullen Thompson

See below for our most recent Commentary, which discusses how complex systems, such as political, economic and financial structures, are inherently fragile, often leading to unpredictable (and abstract) outcomes.

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European economic notes

Posted on December 6, 2011 by Cullen Thompson

This morning I had a call with one of our London based consultants who has a particular focus on Europe.  Before joining his current firm, he spent several years at the UK Treasury, the last two of which he was tasked with … Continue reading →

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CNY re-peg and potential oil implications…

Posted on September 26, 2011 by Cullen Thompson

A prominent sell-side analyst reversed his call for more near term CNY appreciation this morning and has now suggested that China may re-peg around the current level.  Therefore, I thought I would resurrect a chart we’ve spoken about internally before—the CNY vs. … Continue reading →

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Markets face reality in August – August 2011 Recap

Posted on September 14, 2011 by Cullen Thompson

Despite a tumultuous month, nothing really new came to light.  Contrarily, we believe markets finally began to recognize many of the imbalances that have been percolating in plain sight.  Nonetheless, we are pleased to say our portfolios performed quite well.   … Continue reading →

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Global Imbalance Thoughts…

Posted on September 6, 2011 by Cullen Thompson

Below are some thoughts about global imbalances we’ve been talking about internally for a while now that were recently highlighted by one of the independent economists we subscribe to.    The pain (i.e. slowing global growth) will be felt most harshly on the creditor/surplus nations, … Continue reading →

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Our Framework (August 2011)

Posted on August 12, 2011 by Cullen Thompson

“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”   –Albert Einstein Fully two years after the end of the recession and 12 months after the Treasury Secretary penned a New York Times … Continue reading →

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